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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 11 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(:57) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left intended for 83-W.Snead INTERCEPTED by 37-K.Tandy at NO 47. 37-K.Tandy to NO 47 for no gain (83-W.Snead).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.29 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -0.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model