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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:16) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to TB 22, Center-47-J.Drescher. 28-V.Hargreaves pushed ob at TB 29 for 7 yards (29-J.Kuhn).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.93 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model