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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 52

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:07) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.35 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 52, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP