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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2016-11-27 · 16:05 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

SEA
47.5%
TB
52.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.124 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Jameis Winston (TB): +0.093 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SEA 24
–
TB 25
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

SEA

Michael Bennett DE Out Knee
Troymaine Pope RB Out Ankle
C.J. Prosise RB Out Shoulder
Earl Thomas S Out Hamstring
Brock Coyle LB Doubtful Foot
Justin Britt C Questionable Ankle
Damontre Moore DE Questionable Foot
DeShawn Shead CB Questionable Hamstring
Tanner McEvoy WR Questionable Toe

TB

Evan Smith C Out Knee
Alterraun Verner CB Questionable Not Injury Related
Brent Grimes CB Questionable Quadricep
Jacquizz Rodgers RB Questionable Foot
Luke Stocker TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 5
–
TB 14

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:41 TD TB (7:41) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 13-M.Evans for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – TB 6
  • Q1 03:00 TD TB (3:00) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – TB 13
  • Q2 13:29 SAF SEA (13:29) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 13-M.Evans ran ob at TB 16 for 12 yards. PENALTY on TB-88-L.Stocker, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at TB 2 - No Play. Seattle challenged the spot of a foul ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 3-J.Winston pass short left to 13-M.Evans ran ob at TB 16 for 12 yards. PENALTY on TB-88-L.Stocker, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. SEA 2 – TB 14
  • Q2 10:43 FG SEA (10:43) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 5 – TB 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:06) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 54 yards to TB 25, Center-48-N.Frese. 11-A.Humphries pushed ob at TB 38 for 13 yards (27-N.Thorpe).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 22%

    (14:21) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 48 yards to TB 4, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-27-N.Thorpe.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 83%

    (10:43) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 47%

    (6:39) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 27 yards to SEA 14, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:34) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to TB 43, Center-48-N.Frese, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 76%

    (2:17) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:35) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to TB 33, Center-48-N.Frese. 11-A.Humphries to TB 44 for 11 yards (21-D.Elliott).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 26%

    (11:24) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to SEA 4, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-26-J.Robinson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:11) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to TB 28, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-91-C.Marsh.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 50%

    (5:13) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to SEA 9, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-37-K.Tandy.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:39) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to TB 20, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:13) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 56 yards to SEA 7, Center-48-A.DePaola. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 7 for no gain (26-J.Robinson).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:49) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 55 yards to TB 12, Center-48-N.Frese. 11-A.Humphries to TB 36 for 24 yards (48-N.Frese). FUMBLES (48-N.Frese), ball out of bounds at TB 36.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 14 at the 84 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 15-J.Kearse to SEA 34 for 18 yards (21-A.Verner).