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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 5

What Actually Happened

(2:17) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.37 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model