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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 25

Seattle Seahawks 2 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:43) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.36 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model