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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 5

What Actually Happened

(11:24) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to SEA 4, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-26-J.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.05 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model