Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 79

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(6:06) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 54 yards to TB 25, Center-48-N.Frese. 11-A.Humphries pushed ob at TB 38 for 13 yards (27-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model