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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 40

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 5

What Actually Happened

(5:13) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to SEA 9, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-37-K.Tandy.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.58 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP