Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 76

Seattle Seahawks 5 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

(13:35) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to TB 33, Center-48-N.Frese. 11-A.Humphries to TB 44 for 11 yards (21-D.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model