Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 84

Seattle Seahawks 5 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

(3:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 15-J.Kearse to SEA 34 for 18 yards (21-A.Verner).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.08 EP
68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.07 EP