Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 5 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

(9:11) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to TB 28, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-91-C.Marsh.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.94 EP
63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model