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Los Angeles Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2016-11-13 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

LA
42.5%
NYJ
57.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Bryce Petty (NYJ) -0.225 vs Case Keenum (LA) -0.032 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Bryce Petty in place of Ryan Fitzpatrick)
  • NYJ offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 19
–
NYJ 21
Projected margin: NYJ by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

LA

Nelson Spruce WR Out Calf
Matt Longacre DE Questionable Hip
Michael Brockers DT Questionable Groin
Todd Gurley RB Questionable Thigh
Trumaine Johnson CB Questionable Ankle
Lamarcus Joyner CB Questionable Back

NYJ

Bruce Carter LB Out Quadricep
Kellen Davis TE Out Elbow
Nick Mangold C Out Ankle
Josh Martin LB Out Concussion
Marcus Williams CB Out Ankle
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Questionable Knee
Brandon Shell T Questionable Shoulder
Buster Skrine CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 9
–
NYJ 6

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:38 FG LA (9:38) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 12:40 TD NYJ (12:40) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass short left to 15-B.Marshall to LA 10 for -6 yards. Lateral to 29-B.Powell for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – NYJ 6
  • Q3 00:24 FG LA (:24) 4-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 6 – NYJ 6
  • Q4 06:52 FG LA (6:52) 4-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 9 – NYJ 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (9:38) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:26) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to LA 21, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-T.Austin to LA 32 for 11 yards (39-A.Allen).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 13 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 41%

    (1:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to NYJ 1, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-15-B.Marquez.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 14 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 31%

    (9:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to NYJ 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:24) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to LA 6, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-T.Austin to LA 18 for 12 yards (51-J.Stanford).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:49) 6-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to NYJ 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 89-J.Marshall MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 20. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 13 for -7 yards (59-J.Forrest). PENALTY on NYJ-30-N.Marshall, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:06) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to LA 20, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-T.Austin to LA 20 for no gain (30-N.Marshall).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:43) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to NYJ 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 30-N.Marshall to NYJ 31 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 59 yards to LA 14, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 29 for 15 yards (48-Jo.Jenkins).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (12:20) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to NYJ 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 10 for -2 yards (54-B.Hager). PENALTY on NYJ, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 10.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:45) 4-L.Edwards punts 31 yards to LA 25, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-48-Jo.Jenkins.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 20 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 89%

    (:24) 4-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 49%

    (13:11) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to LA 8, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 78 yards to NYJ 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 15 for 10 yards (58-C.Littleton).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:03) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to LA 48, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (6:52) 4-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 21%

    (4:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to LA 20, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 12 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to NYJ 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.