Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- LA offense: -0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- QB edge to LA: Bryce Petty (NYJ) -0.225 vs Case Keenum (LA) -0.032 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Bryce Petty in place of Ryan Fitzpatrick)
- NYJ defense: +0.022 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 10
LA
NYJ
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:38 FG LA (9:38) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – NYJ 0
- Q2 12:40 TD NYJ (12:40) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass short left to 15-B.Marshall to LA 10 for -6 yards. Lateral to 29-B.Powell for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – NYJ 6
- Q3 00:24 FG LA (:24) 4-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 6 – NYJ 6
- Q4 06:52 FG LA (6:52) 4-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 9 – NYJ 6
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%
(9:38) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EPp(convert) 71%
(7:26) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to LA 21, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-T.Austin to LA 32 for 11 yards (39-A.Allen).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LA 4th & 13 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 41%
(1:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to NYJ 1, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-15-B.Marquez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LA 4th & 14 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 31%
(9:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to NYJ 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(5:24) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to LA 6, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-T.Austin to LA 18 for 12 yards (51-J.Stanford).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(3:49) 6-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to NYJ 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 89-J.Marshall MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 20. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 13 for -7 yards (59-J.Forrest). PENALTY on NYJ-30-N.Marshall, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 20.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(1:06) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to LA 20, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-T.Austin to LA 20 for no gain (30-N.Marshall).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(:43) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to NYJ 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 30-N.Marshall to NYJ 31 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(13:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 59 yards to LA 14, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 29 for 15 yards (48-Jo.Jenkins).
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Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 51%
(12:20) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to NYJ 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 10 for -2 yards (54-B.Hager). PENALTY on NYJ, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 10.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(8:45) 4-L.Edwards punts 31 yards to LA 25, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-48-Jo.Jenkins.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LA 4th & 20 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 19% p(FG) 89%
(:24) 4-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 49%
(13:11) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to LA 8, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.
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Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 83Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EPp(convert) 71%
(11:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 78 yards to NYJ 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 15 for 10 yards (58-C.Littleton).
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(11:03) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to LA 48, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.
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Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%
(6:52) 4-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 52 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 21%
(4:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to LA 20, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 10-P.Cooper.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LA 4th & 12 at the 72 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(3:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to NYJ 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.
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