4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 72

New York Jets 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to LA 21, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-T.Austin to LA 32 for 11 yards (39-A.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.64 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP