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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 68

New York Jets 6 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to LA 20, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-T.Austin to LA 20 for no gain (30-N.Marshall).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.19 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 26, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model