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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 40

New York Jets 6 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(13:11) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to LA 8, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.42 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP