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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 4-G.Zuerlein 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 2, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP