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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 83

Los Angeles Rams 6 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 78 yards to NYJ 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 15 for 10 yards (58-C.Littleton).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.91 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 83, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 41, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP