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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 73

New York Jets 6 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 59 yards to LA 14, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 29 for 15 yards (48-Jo.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 31, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model