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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 47

Los Angeles Rams 3 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to NYJ 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.67 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 47, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model