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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 64

Los Angeles Rams 3 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to NYJ 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 10 for -2 yards (54-B.Hager). PENALTY on NYJ, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.02 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP