4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
PHI Away

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2016-10-30 · 20:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

PHI
35.3%
DAL
64.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.320 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.129 EPA/dropback
  • DAL on 7 more days rest than PHI
  • PHI defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL defense: +0.030 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
DAL 28
Projected margin: DAL by 5 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

PHI

Kamu Grugier-Hill LB Out Hamstring
Bennie Logan DT Out Groin
Taylor Hart DT Questionable Ankle

DAL

Ryan Davis DE Out Hamstring
Tony Romo QB Out Back
Chaz Green T Questionable Foot
Morris Claiborne CB Questionable Concussion
Kyle Wilber LB Questionable Neck
Jason Witten TE Questionable Chest
Dez Bryant WR Questionable Knee
Lance Dunbar RB Questionable Knee
David Irving DE Questionable Ankle
Demarcus Lawrence DE Questionable Back
Orlando Scandrick CB Questionable Hamstring
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 23
–
DAL 29

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:44 FG PHI (6:44) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. Penalty on DAL-24-M.Claiborne, Running Into the Kicker, declined. PHI 3 – DAL 0
  • Q1 04:46 TD DAL (4:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – DAL 6
  • Q2 14:55 FG DAL (14:55) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. PHI 3 – DAL 10
  • Q2 03:45 TD PHI (3:45) 24-R.Mathews left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – DAL 10
  • Q2 00:01 FG PHI (:01) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 13 – DAL 10
  • Q3 06:22 TD PHI (6:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 81-J.Matthews for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 19 – DAL 10
  • Q3 01:00 FG DAL (1:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. PHI 20 – DAL 13
  • Q4 14:13 FG PHI (14:13) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 23 – DAL 13
  • Q4 11:34 FG DAL (11:34) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. PHI 23 – DAL 16
  • Q4 03:11 TD DAL (3:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-D.Bryant for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 23 – DAL 22
  • Q5 07:56 TD DAL (7:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 82-J.Witten for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 23 – DAL 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:58) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to PHI 38, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (6:44) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. Penalty on DAL-24-M.Claiborne, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:21) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to DAL 28, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-42-C.Maragos.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 90%

    (14:55) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:34) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 62 yards to DAL 3, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 20 for 17 yards (53-N.Bradham). PENALTY on DAL-45-R.Smith, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 10. Whitehead got to the 20 yard line prior to the penalty

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (8:58) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to PHI 46, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 43-D.Sproles to DAL 45 for 9 yards (38-J.Heath; 89-G.Escobar).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 4 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:53) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 61 yards to DAL 25, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 37 for 12 yards (56-B.Braman).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (10:42) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to PHI 16, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 43-D.Sproles MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 16. PENALTY on DAL-45-R.Smith, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 16.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones left end to PHI 43 for 30 yards (43-D.Sproles). Fake punt run around left end.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (1:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (14:13) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:12) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to PHI 41, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 75%

    (11:34) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 14 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 65%

    (6:34) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 26 yards to DAL 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:54) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 29 yards to DAL 40, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-47-T.Burton.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:24) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.