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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(3:21) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to DAL 28, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-42-C.Maragos.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.05 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP