Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

(4:55) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones left end to PHI 43 for 30 yards (43-D.Sproles). Fake punt run around left end.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

What Happened

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP