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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 87

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(8:58) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to PHI 46, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 43-D.Sproles to DAL 45 for 9 yards (38-J.Heath; 89-G.Escobar).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.98 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 87, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 45, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP