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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 86

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(12:53) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 61 yards to DAL 25, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 37 for 12 yards (56-B.Braman).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.65 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 86, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 44, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP