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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 80

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 23

What Actually Happened

(13:12) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to PHI 41, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 80, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model