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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 36

Philadelphia Eagles 23 – Dallas Cowboys 16

What Actually Happened

(6:34) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 26 yards to DAL 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.35 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP