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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 16

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(14:13) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.53 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 16, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model