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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 12

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(6:44) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. Penalty on DAL-24-M.Claiborne, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.53 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model