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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
Sunday 2016-10-30 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread -5.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

NE
46.3%
BUF
53.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.115 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.151 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 22
–
BUF 23
Projected margin: BUF by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NE

Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Ankle
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Foot
Woodrow Hamilton DT Questionable Shoulder
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Hip
Malcolm Mitchell WR Questionable Hamstring
Elandon Roberts LB Questionable Ankle
Vincent Valentine DT Questionable Back

BUF

Marquise Goodwin WR Out Concussion
Aaron Williams S Out Neck
LeSean McCoy RB Doubtful Hamstring
Corbin Bryant DT Questionable Shoulder
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
Marcell Dareus DT Questionable Hamstring
Mike Gillislee RB Questionable Foot
Cordy Glenn T Questionable Ankle
Jerry Hughes LB Questionable Hand
Lerentee McCray LB Questionable Knee
John Miller G Questionable Shoulder
Robert Woods WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 41
–
BUF 25

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:07 FG BUF (11:07) 2-D.Carpenter 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. NE 0 – BUF 3
  • Q1 04:41 TD NE (4:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 80-D.Amendola for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line. NE 6 – BUF 3
  • Q1 01:41 TD NE (1:41) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 15-C.Hogan for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at BUF 9. NE 13 – BUF 3
  • Q2 06:30 TD BUF (6:30) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 14 – BUF 9
  • Q2 04:27 TD NE (4:27) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 27. NE 20 – BUF 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG NE (:03) 3-S.Gostkowski 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 24 – BUF 10
  • Q3 14:07 TD NE (14:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WR screen, caught at BUF 15. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NE 30 – BUF 10
  • Q3 08:04 TD BUF (8:04) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor up the middle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. QB draw. NE 31 – BUF 16
  • Q3 03:08 TD NE (3:08) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 37 – BUF 17
  • Q4 07:10 FG NE (7:10) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 41 – BUF 17
  • Q4 00:33 TD BUF (:33) (Shotgun) 31-J.Williams right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF charged with time out for erroneously throwing challenge flag. NE 41 – BUF 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (11:07) 2-D.Carpenter 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:49) 6-C.Schmidt punts 33 yards to BUF 45, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (15:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to NE 30, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 39 for 9 yards (52-P.Brown).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 17 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:05) 6-R.Allen punts 41 yards to BUF 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-B.Tate to BUF 29 for 2 yards (43-N.Ebner).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 18 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:20) 6-C.Schmidt punts 56 yards to NE 8, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 18 for 10 yards (29-K.Seymour).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 13 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:47) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to BUF 41, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 71%

    (:32) 2-D.Carpenter 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:41) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt to BUF 10 for -10 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BUF 11. 6-C.Schmidt pushed ob at BUF 36 for 25 yards (36-B.King).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 81%

    (8:04) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor up the middle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. QB draw.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 85-C.Clay. Off receiver's hands, 4 yds. into end zone.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (7:10) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 69%

    (4:38) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 10-R.Woods to NE 23 for 9 yards (21-M.Butler). Caught in flat at NE 23. Measurement = turnover on downs. Buffalo challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 04:29.)

  • Q4 NE 4th & 16 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:34) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to BUF 34, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-W.Powell.