4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 88

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 6-C.Schmidt punts 33 yards to BUF 45, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.63 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 88, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model