Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 85

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 3

(8:47) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to BUF 41, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.33 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 85, worth -5.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model