Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 83

New England Patriots 41 – Buffalo Bills 17

(2:34) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to BUF 34, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-W.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.24 EP
71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 83, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model