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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 5

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 2-D.Carpenter 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.22 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 5, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP