4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to NE 30, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 39 for 9 yards (52-P.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.33 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP