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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 32

Buffalo Bills 17 – New England Patriots 41

What Actually Happened

(4:38) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 10-R.Woods to NE 23 for 9 yards (21-M.Butler). Caught in flat at NE 23. Measurement = turnover on downs. Buffalo challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 04:29.)

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.37 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP