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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 10

Buffalo Bills 17 – New England Patriots 38

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 85-C.Clay. Off receiver's hands, 4 yds. into end zone.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.14 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 10, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model