Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 64

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 14

(10:20) 6-C.Schmidt punts 56 yards to NE 8, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 18 for 10 yards (29-K.Seymour).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.03 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model