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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2016-10-30 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

KC
46.8%
IND
53.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • KC offense: -0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 23
–
IND 24
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

KC

Jamaal Charles RB Out Knee
Jordan Devey G Out Ankle
D.J. White CB Out Hand
Mitchell Schwartz T Questionable Ankle

IND

Dwayne Allen TE Out Ankle
Henry Anderson DT Out Knee
Kendall Langford DE Out Knee
Curt Maggitt LB Out Ankle
Jack Mewhort G Out Tricep
Chester Rogers WR Out Hamstring
Donte Moncrief WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 30
–
IND 14

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:25 FG KC (10:25) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – IND 0
  • Q2 13:05 TD KC (13:05) (Run formation) 4-N.Foles pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on IND-32-T.Green, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. KC 9 – IND 0
  • Q2 10:16 TD IND (10:16) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 23-F.Gore for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 10 – IND 6
  • Q2 00:24 TD KC (:24) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 19-J.Maclin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – IND 7
  • Q3 07:41 TD KC (7:41) (Shotgun) 4-N.Foles pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – IND 7
  • Q3 02:12 TD IND (2:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 24 – IND 13
  • Q4 08:04 FG KC (8:04) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 27 – IND 14
  • Q4 03:40 FG KC (3:40) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 30 – IND 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 94%

    (10:25) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:02) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to KC 35, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:32) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to IND 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-T.Hilton.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (4:57) 5-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:39) 1-P.McAfee punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to IND 24, Center-41-J.Winchester. 34-J.Ferguson MUFFS catch, touched at IND 24, recovered by IND-30-R.Melvin at IND 23. 30-R.Melvin to IND 23 for no gain (14-D.Robinson).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:11) 1-P.McAfee punts 41 yards to KC 18, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 15 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to IND 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (1:44) 1-P.McAfee punts 57 yards to KC 15, Center-45-M.Overton. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 28 for 13 yards (28-J.Todman).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:51) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to IND 29, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 15-P.Dorsett.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:14) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to KC 9, Center-45-M.Overton. 10-T.Hill to KC 25 for 16 yards (84-J.Doyle).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:22) 1-P.McAfee punts 58 yards to KC 22, Center-45-M.Overton. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at 50 for 28 yards (84-J.Doyle).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (8:04) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:17) 1-P.McAfee punts 44 yards to KC 30, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 84%

    (3:40) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck scrambles up the middle to KC 45 for 17 yards (20-S.Nelson).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 15 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 55%

    (:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short left to 81-D.Street (20-S.Nelson). IND-15-P.Dorsett was injured during the play.