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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 1-P.McAfee punts 58 yards to KC 22, Center-45-M.Overton. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at 50 for 28 yards (84-J.Doyle).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.02 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model