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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 1-P.McAfee punts 57 yards to KC 15, Center-45-M.Overton. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 28 for 13 yards (28-J.Todman).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.50 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model