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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 4

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 4, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP