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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 26

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(3:40) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +2.91 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model