Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(2:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to IND 6, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.68 EP
72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model