Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(7:32) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to IND 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-T.Hilton.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.93 EP
69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model