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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 1-P.McAfee punts 44 yards to KC 30, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 32, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model