Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 58

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(13:14) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to KC 9, Center-45-M.Overton. 10-T.Hill to KC 25 for 16 yards (84-J.Doyle).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.97 EP
61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model