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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Chip Kelly
Sunday 2016-10-23 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

TB
51.4%
SF
48.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Colin Kaepernick (SF): -0.099 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB on 6 more days rest than SF
  • TB defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.030 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 23
–
SF 22
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

TB

Robert Ayers DE Out Ankle
Doug Martin RB Out Hamstring
Clinton McDonald DT Out Hamstring
Jude Adjei-Barimah CB Questionable Knee
Joe Hawley C Questionable Knee
Cecil Shorts WR Questionable Hamstring
Luke Stocker TE Questionable Ankle
Gerald McCoy DT Questionable Calf

SF

Carlos Hyde RB Out Shoulder
Glenn Dorsey DT Questionable Knee
Rashard Robinson CB Questionable Concussion
Torrey Smith WR Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 34
–
SF 17

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:04 TD SF (13:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-M.Davis left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – SF 6
  • Q1 00:16 TD SF (:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep left to 24-S.Draughn for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TB 0 – SF 13
  • Q2 10:20 TD TB (10:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – SF 14
  • Q2 05:04 FG TB (5:04) 19-R.Aguayo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 10 – SF 14
  • Q2 00:53 TD TB (:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 89-R.Shepard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – SF 14
  • Q3 11:02 FG TB (11:02) 19-R.Aguayo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 20 – SF 14
  • Q3 06:30 TD TB (6:30) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 13-M.Evans for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-A.Lynch]. TB 26 – SF 14
  • Q4 08:12 FG SF (8:12) 4-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. TB 27 – SF 17
  • Q4 04:51 TD TB (4:51) 78-G.Cherilus reported in as eligible. 43-P.Barber left guard for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 33 – SF 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 26%

    (9:08) 43-P.Barber left guard to 50 for no gain (92-Q.Dial). Officials to measure for the first down. No gain.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 33%

    (8:11) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to TB 11, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-36-D.Johnson.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 24%

    (4:45) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to SF 13, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 20 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (1:21) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to TB 23, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 16 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 90%

    (5:04) 19-R.Aguayo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:41) 5-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to TB 23, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:22) 5-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to TB 1, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-A.Humphries MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 1. 11-A.Humphries to TB 16 for 15 yards (51-G.Hodges, 86-K.Nelson).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:10) 9-B.Anger punts 42 yards to SF 34, Center-48-A.DePaola. 13-A.Burbridge MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-37-K.Tandy at SF 36. 37-K.Tandy to SF 36 for no gain (38-J.Shepherd). 2-yds of loose ball yardage.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 91%

    (11:02) 19-R.Aguayo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:11) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to TB 17, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries. PENALTY on TB-43-P.Barber, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at TB 17.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 71%

    (14:17) 19-R.Aguayo 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 46%

    (11:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick scrambles right end pushed ob at TB 34 for 8 yards (38-J.Adjei-Barimah).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (8:12) 4-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 14 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to TB 28, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-A.Humphries MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 30. 11-A.Humphries to TB 30 for no gain (36-D.Johnson).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 21%

    (1:18) 9-B.Anger punts 37 yards to SF 16, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.