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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 5-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to TB 23, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.49 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP